The MPC raised its FY2026 CPI inflation projection by 10 bps to 2.1% in Feb 2026 from the earlier estimate of 2.0% in Dec 2025, amid an upward revision in the Q4 forecast by 30 bps.

While the Committee raised the inflation projections for Q1-Q2 FY2027 by 10-20 bps, it refrained from providing a forecast for FY2027, owing to the upcoming release of the new CPI series.

EXHIBIT: RBI’s earlier and current GDP growth and CPI inflation forecasts

Source: RBI; ICRA Research