Benefitting from healthy reservoir storage levels and strong average hike in the minimum support prices (MSP; highest in last 7 years), the sowing of rabi crops for 2025-26 has risen by 2.4% year-on-year (YoY) at end-January 2026, while printing 6.1% above the normal area (5Y average; wheat up by ~2% YoY and 7% over normal area). Considering these trends, ICRA is cautiously optimistic about the prospects for rabi crop production in AY2025-26, especially for wheat, although the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD’s) forecast of above-normal minimum temperatures over most parts of the country in February 2026 may weigh on the crop yields and thus remains a key monitorable. Besides, favourable crop trends and continued policy support from the Government are expected to support rural farm sentiments, incomes and consumption demand until the next crop cycle, provided that procurement of rabi crops is timely. Notwithstanding this, the elevated base is likely to optically temper down the agri-GVA expansion to ~3% in H2 FY2026 from 3.6% in H1 FY2026 (H1/H2 FY2025: +2.8%; +6.0%), implying a full-year growth of 3.3% in FY2026 as per the existing base (2011-12).

EXHIBIT: Region-wise and Pan-India rainfall departure from normal

*Up to February 9, 2026; Source: IMD; CEIC; ICRA Research