India’s sugar output is expected to rebound in SY2026, driven by improved crop quality. This was supported by higher proportion of plant cane and adequate water availability. Domestic sugar prices are expected to remain firm in near term.
- Sugar Demand–Supply Balance Estimates – As per ISMA’s preliminary estimates, gross sugar production for SY2026 is estimated to increase by around 18% at 34.9 million MT (P.Y. 29.5 million MT). Net sugar production, after estimated diversion of 4 million MT towards ethanol production, is likely to remain around 30.9 million MT. Considering the domestic consumption of 28 million MT and export of 1 million MT similar to SY2025, the closing sugar stock level is expected to remain around 7.0 million MT (5.1 million MT), which is about three months of consumption, indicating comfortable demand-supply scenario.
- Sugar Production – For SY2025, sugar production stood at 25.82 million MT till July 2025, marking a Yearon- Year (YoY) decline of 18.38% compared to the corresponding period in the previous fiscal. This was mainly due to the decline in output in major sugar-producing states. Special crushing operations are currently under way in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, from June to September and is expected to add additional tonnes to the overall production.
Exhibit: Yearly trends in sugar production, consumption and closing stock
Source: ISMA, ICRA Research; SY: Sugar Year (from October 01 to September 30)
