Economic Outlook & Macro Trends

CONSUMPTION TRACKER: Consumption trends were mixed in Q2 FY2026; festive season and GST rate cuts to boost demand in Q3

Thematic Report 10 Dec 2025

While the GDP dataset suggests that the growth in India’s Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) has improved to 7.9% in Q2 FY2026 from 7.0% in Q1 FY2026 (amidst a seven-quarter average of +7.1%), the growth in nominal terms has remained lacklustre at 9.3% (vs. +9.2% in Q1), well below the consistent double-digit growth that was seen in this indicator through FY2025. This is reflected in the mixed trends seen across consumption categories.

  • FMCG companies saw a deceleration in their growth rates in Q2 vis-a-vis Q1, amid transitory channel disruptions as well as some likely deferment of purchases ahead of the GST rate rationalisation, along with adverse impact of excess rainfall. Besides, the revenue growth of discretionary items such as alcoholic beverages and quick service restaurants (QSR) was lacklustre in the quarter.
  • Pan-India premium hotel occupancy levels were firm in Q2 FY2026, driven by business travel, MICE, and leisure travel, and have also improved further in October-November 2025, even as the performance of domestic air passenger traffic remained weak. The sales for home improvement players, in the tiles and paints categories were also muted in Q2 FY2026.
  • The GST rate cuts likely led to deferment of purchases of durables such as PVs and 2Ws, which have later seen a surge in sales in October-November 2025.

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