Economic Outlook & Macro Trends
While the
GDP dataset suggests that the growth in India’s Private Final Consumption
Expenditure (PFCE) has improved to 7.9% in Q2 FY2026 from 7.0% in Q1 FY2026
(amidst a seven-quarter average of +7.1%), the growth in nominal terms has
remained lacklustre at 9.3% (vs. +9.2% in Q1), well below the consistent
double-digit growth that was seen in this indicator through FY2025. This is
reflected in the mixed trends seen across consumption categories.
- FMCG
companies saw a deceleration in their growth rates in Q2 vis-a-vis Q1, amid
transitory channel disruptions as well as some likely deferment of purchases
ahead of the GST rate rationalisation, along with adverse impact of excess
rainfall. Besides, the revenue growth of discretionary items such as alcoholic
beverages and quick service restaurants (QSR) was lacklustre in the quarter.
- Pan-India
premium hotel occupancy levels were firm in Q2 FY2026, driven by business
travel, MICE, and leisure travel, and have also improved further in
October-November 2025, even as the performance of domestic air passenger
traffic remained weak. The sales for home improvement players, in the tiles and
paints categories were also muted in Q2 FY2026.
- The GST rate
cuts likely led to deferment of purchases of durables such as PVs and 2Ws,
which have later seen a surge in sales in October-November 2025.