Crude prices have slipped to $62– 64/barrel (bbl), marking a sharp decline from earlier highs as oversupply concerns deepen. Brent briefly spiked to $79/bbl in June amid Israel-Iran tensions, but a ceasefire and Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) output hikes triggered a sustained correction. Inventories have surged, demand remains soft and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have further pressured prices. While any rebound would support upstream margins, the near-term outlook stays bearish.

• Brent crude slid from $77/bbl in March to $63/bbl by April owing to imposition of retaliatory trade tariffs leading to fears on an economic slowdown and weak demand amid OPEC+ supply rollback.
  
• OPEC+ paused production hikes for Q1 2026 amid oversupply and weak demand. Additionally, U.S. imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukeoil who together accounted for ~60% of India’s imports.
  

Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), ICRA Research