After reporting an 8.8% YoY growth in wholesale volumes in Q2 FY2026, the domestic CV industry witnessed a substantial 21.8% YoY increase in Q3 FY2026, with GST rate rationalisation supporting demand momentum. With this, the domestic wholesale CV volumes reported a 10.1% YoY growth in 9M FY2026. Overall, ICRA expects the domestic CV industry volumes to register a 7-9% growth in FY2026, followed by 4-6% growth in FY2027.

• ICRA forecasts the Indian commercial vehicle (CV) industry wholesale volumes to see a YoY growth of 7-9% in FY2026, following a marginal 1% YoY decline in FY2025. The domestic CV wholesale volumes expanded by 10.1% in 9M FY2026, driven by the reduction in the GST rate to 18% from 28%, effective September 22, 2025, further supported by the festive season coinciding with GST rate cuts.
• The domestic medium and heavy commercial vehicle (M&HCV) (trucks) wholesale volumes reported a 9.6% YoY growth in 9M FY2026 and are expected to grow by 7-9% YoY in FY2026, after posting a 4% YoY decline in FY2025. A steady economic environment and stable performance of end-user industries are the key driving factors behind the growth registered in this segment.