Economic Outlook & Macro Trends

GST rationalisation, healthy festive demand to have kept India’s GDP growth above 7% in Q3 FY2026, notwithstanding sequential dip

Quarterly Update 25 Feb 2026

India’s GDP data is set for a base revision at the end of February 2026 (to base year 2022-23 from the current base year 2011-12), with the NSO intending to incorporate structural changes in the economy via assessing new data sets (like vehicle registrations, generation of GST e-way bills, results of surveys including the household consumption expenditure survey, ASUSE, etc.). 

The latest print as per the current 2011-12 series is for Q2 FY2026, which had revealed an unexpected rise in the GDP growth to a six-quarter high of 8.2% from 7.8% in Q1 FY2026 (refer Exhibit 1).

EXHIBIT 1: YoY growth in GDP (at Constant 2011-12 Prices) and contribution of components


Source: NSO; CEIC; ICRA Research

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