As per ISMA’s third advance estimates, gross sugar production for SY2026* is projected to increase by 9.4% at 32.41 million MT (P.Y. 29.6 million MT). The net sugar production, after an estimated diversion of 3.1 million MT towards ethanol production, is likely to remain at 29.3 million MT. Considering the domestic consumption of 28.3 million MT and export of 0.7 million MT, the closing sugar stock is expected to be 5.6 million MT (P.Y. 5.3 million MT), which is about two months of consumption, indicating a comfortable demand-supply scenario. International prices reduced marginally with raw sugar prices of $326/MT in January 2026 compared to $329/MT in December 2025, while prices of white sugar stood at $421/MT in January 2026 compared to $426/MT in December 2025. The premium between white and raw sugar stood at $95/MT in January 2026.

Exhibit: Yearly trends in sugar production, consumption and closing stock