The West Asia conflict has added a sharp risk premium to crude, with tanker traffic and freight rates disrupted. In the near term, price action will be driven by geopolitics and logistics rather than typical demand-supply balances. Brent has recently spiked to more than $100/bbl, driven by severe disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) and elevated geopolitical risk premium. Given the fluid conflict dynamics, near-term outlook for crude price remains volatile with upside risk.

Exhibit: Brent crude price trend ($/bbl)