Industry growth rate to moderate in FY2027 on an elevated base
Monthly Update
27 Apr 2026
PowerPoint Presentation
Wholesale volumes rose by
16% year-on-year (YoY) to 4.4 lakh units in March 2026, as
original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) continued steady production to cater to
the robust domestic demand. On a sequential basis, wholesale dispatches
improved by 6%. Retail sales recorded a strong YoY growth of 21% in March
2026, supported by the steady traction of new model launches and the
sustained positive impact of the revised Goods and Services Tax (GST) rates.
Wholesale volumes grew by 8.6% YoY to an all-time high of 4.7 million units in
FY2026. Wholesale volumes declined by 0.2% in H1 FY2026 while it rose
considerably by 17% in H2 FY2026, following the change in GST rates. Retail
volumes also expanded by 11% to an all-time high of 4.6 million units.
Inventory levels further
reduced to around 28 days by March 2026 from 52-53 days at the end
of March 2025 and 60 days as of September 2025, as per the Federation of
Automobile Dealers Association (FADA), aided by stronger retail offtake. In
FY2026, utility vehicles (UVs) accounted for 68% of the overall passenger vehicle
(PV) volumes. While UVs continue to drive most of the volumes, volumes in the
mini, compact and super-compact segments have recovered slightly after the GST
rate cuts. The UV segment is likely to remain the key volume driver, though
demand for passenger cars is also expected to go up.
Export volumes rose by a
healthy 18% in FY2026, albeit on a relatively moderate base. The
growth indicates the increasing supply push from Indian OEMs. The upward trend
continued with Maruti Suzuki India Limited maintaining its lead as the top
exporter (49% market share in exports), followed by Hyundai Motor India
Limited.
Exhibit: Trend in monthly PV
volumes – Domestic (in units)
Source: SIAM data, FADA,
ICRA Research, industry sources; Note: Although SIAM’s monthly statement does
not include Tata Motors Limited (TML) from April 2020, TML’s volumes have been
factored in the above trend