Research Report

• MTD eased on a YoY basis to $30.2 billion in September 2026: Merchandise exports jumped by 23.0% YoY to $44.4 billion in September 2026, led by both oil (+32%) and non-oil (+22%) shipments. Merchandise imports rose by a much lower 8.0% YoY to $74.6 billion in September 2026, led by a plunge in gold imports (-81%). Consequently, the MTD narrowed to $30.2 billion in September 2026 from $33.0 billion in September 2025, entirely led by the non-oil segment (to -$18.1 billion in September 2026 from -$23.7 billion in September 2025). 
• Exports and imports saw healthy growth in H1 FY2027, boosted by commodity price inflation: Merchandise exports rose by a sharp 18.5% YoY in H1 FY2027, with oil, engineering and electronic goods accounting for ~80% of the absolute YoY rise in shipments. Additionally, merchandise imports rose by 16.3% YoY in H1 FY2027, led by oil, electronic goods and machinery, which accounted for ~84% of the total YoY increase during this period.
  

EXHIBIT: India’s merchandise exports expanded by double-digits for the 6th consecutive month in September 2026, rising by 23.0% to $44.4 billion; however, this was slightly lower than the 50-month high growth seen in August 2026 (+26.1%); exports grew by 22.9% in Q2 FY2027 (+14.2% in Q1 FY2027)