Research Report

As per the provisional data released by the CGA, the GoI’s revenue deficit remained largely flat at Rs. 3.6 trillion during April-November or 8M FY2026 (68.2% of FY2026 BE), similar to the level seen in the corresponding period of FY2025 (63.0% of FY2025 PA), with the tepid growth in revenue expenditure (+1.8% YoY) being largely offset by the 2.1% rise in revenue receipts. 

However, the GoI’s capex rose substantially to Rs. 6.6 trillion in 8M FY2026 (58.7% of FY2026 BE) from Rs. 5.1 trillion in 8M FY2025 (48.8% of FY2025 PA). Consequently, the GoI’s fiscal deficit enlarged to Rs. 9.8 trillion in 8M FY2026 (62.3% of FY2026 BE) from Rs. 8.5 trillion in 8M FY2025 (53.7% of FY2025 PA), notwithstanding the healthy YoY increase in non-debt capital receipts (to Rs. 389.3 billion from Rs. 239.5 billion).

EXHIBIT: Fiscal trends in April-November or 8M FY2025 and 8M FY2026

Source: CGA, Ministry of Finance, GoI; ICRA Research