Research Report

Domestic CV wholesale volumes witnessed a 12.7% YoY growth in March 2026, while retail volumes recorded a 15.1% YoY rise, with GST rate cuts being the primary driver. Domestic CV wholesale volumes reported a 12.6% YoY growth in FY2026. ICRA expects domestic CV wholesale volumes to register a moderate 4-6% YoY increase in FY2027, with the broadened base effect of FY2026 likely to have some bearing on growth momentum in FY2027.

The wholesale volumes of Indian commercial vehicles (CV)* increased by a healthy 12.7% YoY in March 2026 with a sequential rise of 13.7%. The YoY growth was primarily driven by sustained demand stemming from the Goods & Services Tax (GST) rate cut to 18% from 28% with effect from September 22, 2025. The same was also supported by higher freight activities in the goods segment. Overall, the domestic CV wholesale volumes grew by 12.6% YoY in FY2026 (19.0% YoY growth registered in Q4 FY2026)^. CV retail volumes reported a healthy 15.1% YoY growth in March 2026, while registering a sequential increase of 1.7%.

Retail volumes in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (M&HCV) segment witnessed a healthy growth of 19.8% on a YoY basis in March 2026 while recording a sequential decline of 0.3%. The YoY increase in retail volumes for the M&HCV segment in FY2026 stood at 10.0%, with volume growth momentum picking up post the implementation of GST rate cuts and driven by infrastructure-linked freight movement and demand from school bus operations.

Exhibit 1: Trend in monthly domestic CV wholesale sales volumes and YoY growth

Source: BSE, ICRA Research; Note: Data reflects the aggregate wholesale volumes of five listed CV OEMs, which account for ~95% of CV sales in the country.