Research Report

Electricity demand remained strong in the first 10 days of October 2026, supported by higher-than-normal temperatures and sustained cooling requirements. Lower hydropower generation increased reliance on thermal power, resulting in higher coal offtake and a further drawdown in coal inventories. Consequently, coal stocks remained well below normative levels, while spot power tariffs stayed elevated amid strong demand and tight fuel availability.

• Electricity demand remained strong in the first 10 days of October 2026, growing 23.4% YoY as per GCIL data. Demand rose 10.2% YoY in 6M FY2027, driven by higher cooling needs amid above-normal temperatures, higher agricultural load and healthy industrial and commercial activity. Demand has been staying high beyond the usual summer months. ICRA now expects demand growth of about 8.5% in FY2027, up from 6.5% earlier, supported by a potential Super El Niño impact, a lower base and sustained industrial and commercial activity.
• Spot power tariffs on the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) averaged at Rs. 7.7 per unit as on October 10, 2026, significantly higher than that in August 2025 and July 2026, supported by robust electricity demand and higher cooling requirements. While improved power availability during solar hours has moderated extreme price spikes, tariffs have remained firm during peak hours. Going forward, tariff trends in FY2027 will stay dependent on the demand-supply situation and seasonal demand patterns.

Exhibit 1: Electricity demand increased YoY in first 10 days of October 2026

Source: ICRA Research, Central Electricity Authority (CEA), GCIL