ICRA expects the vehicular traffic growth to increase by 4-5% in FY2026e from 2.5% in FY2025, driven by increased economic activity and low base effect. Given this, the toll collection for ICRA sample set is expected to increase by 5-9% in FY2026 compared to around 6% in FY2025.

• Road execution by the MoRTH has witnessed a YoY decline of 12% to 3,468 km during 7M FY2026 compared to 3,920 km in 7M FY2025. ICRA expects the road execution to moderate to 9,000-9,500 km (~25-26 km/day) in FY2026, marginally lower than FY2025 execution of 10,660 km. The road execution of MoRTH for FY2025 has declined by 14% to 10,660 km compared to 12,349 km in FY2024, with the NHAI road execution declining by 16% to 5,614 km compared to 6,644 km in FY2025.
• ICRA expects the road awards by MoRTH to stand at 8,500-9,000 km in FY2026, slightly higher than the estimated 7,500-8,000 km for FY2025. However, it is likely to remain lower than FY2021-FY2023 levels. The awarding activity may pick up in H2 FY2026, given the Ministry’s focus on addressing land acquisition issues and environment clearances, with directive to award projects only after 90% right-of-way availability, receipt of forest clearances and GAD approvals for road-over-bridge (ROB).