IIP growth to ease to 6.0-7.0% in January 2026: IIP growth accelerated to a six-quarter high of 5.2% in Q3 FY2026 from 4.3% in Q2, reflecting the improvement in the performance of the manufacturing and mining sectors. This is expected to augur well for the industrial GVA growth performance in the quarter. ICRA currently pegs the GDP growth (at constant 2011-12 prices) in Q3 FY2026 at a healthy 7.1-7.2%, albeit recording a moderation as compared to the 8% expansion in H1 on account of the high base. Looking ahead, ICRA expects the IIP growth to decelerate to ~6.0-7.0% in January 2026, partly owing to an unfavourable base (December 2024/January 2025: +3.7%/+5.2%).

EXHIBIT: IIP growth inched up to a 26-month high of 7.8% in December 2025 (+3.7% in December 2024) from the upward revised 7.2% in November 2025 (+5.0% in November 2024), exceeding our expectations

Source: NSO; CEIC; ICRA Research