Research Report

Elevated global commodity prices pushed up the year-on-year (YoY) Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation to a series-high of 11.4% in September 2026 from 9.9% in August, in line with ICRA’s estimate (+11.3%). The non-food manufactured goods (core-WPI) segment accounted for 88 bps of the 147 bps uptick in the headline inflation print in September relative to August 2026, reflecting the impact of passthrough of input cost pressures. The YoY inflation in this segment hardened to a record 9.8% in September 2026, with 13 of the 21 sub-sectors reporting an uptick in their inflation readings between these months.

• Looking ahead, ICRA expects the WPI food inflation to harden further to ~9.5-10.0% in October 2026 (+8.7% in September 2026), amid an adverse base, even though the sequential momentum in food prices has eased somewhat in the month so far.
• This, along with no respite so far on global energy and commodity prices, is set to push up the WPI inflation further to ~12.0% in October 2026. With uneven and sub-par monsoon rains scarring the agricultural outlook, food inflation prints are expected to remain elevated in the near term. ICRA expects the WPI inflation to remain in double digits through Q3 FY2027.