Economic Outlook & Macro Trends

Goods’ trade deficit surged in June 2026 amid elevated commodity prices; CAD to widen to 1.5% of GDP in Q1 FY2027

Monthly Update 14 Jul 2026

Merchandise trade deficit at 5-month high in June 2026: India’s merchandise exports have recorded a YoY growth of 15.5% YoY to $40.4 billion in June 2026, nearly half of the steep 31.0% expansion seen in such imports ($70.8 billion).

Growth in imports outpaced that in exports in Q1 FY2027: In quarterly terms, merchandise exports increased by a healthy 15.9% YoY in Q1 FY2027, with oil, engineering and electronic goods accounting for as much as 79% of the absolute YoY rise in shipments, notwithstanding trade disruptions amid the ongoing geopolitical conflict.

EXHIBIT: Trends in India’s merchandise exports and imports


Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, GoI; ICRA Research

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