Boosted by stocking ahead of the GST-rationalisation fueled demand during the festive season, the IIP growth in September 2025 was largely steady at 4.0% (+4.1% in August 2025), in contrast with the halving seen in the core sector growth (to +3.0% from +6.5%) between these months. The expansion in manufacturing output accelerated to 4.8% in September 2025 from 3.8% in August 2025, even as the mining and electricity segments witnessed a deterioration in their YoY performance. Overall, the combination of GST rate rejig, pent-up demand and the early festive onset appears to have boosted demand in September-October 2025, which is expected to augur well for the growth in manufacturing output in October 2025 as well. While the GST rationalisation may support purchases of regular use/smaller ticket items post the festive season, the sustenance of the buoyancy in demand for big-ticket items remains to be seen.

YoY IIP growth remained stable at 4.0% in September 2025: The IIP growth printed at 4.0% in September 2025 (vs. +4.1% in August 2025), boosted by the uptick in the growth of manufacturing output (to +4.8% in September 2025 from +3.8% in August 2025), supported by stocking ahead of the GST rationalisation. In contrast, the YoY performance of mining output (to -0.4% from +6.6%) and electricity generation (to +3.1% from +4.1%) deteriorated in September 2025 vis-à-vis August 2025, amid excess rainfall as well as an adverse base.

Five of the six use-based categories saw improvement: Barring primary goods, the YoY performance of the other five use-based sub-segments saw an uptick in September 2025 vis-à-vis August 2025. In particular, growth in the consumer durables output surged to a 10-month high of 10.2% in September 2025 from 3.5% in August 2025, as businesses increased production to stock up to cater to increased demand owing to the GST rate rejig.