The combination of GST rate rationalisation, pent-up demand and the early festive onset appears to have boosted demand in September-October 2025, which is expected to augur well for the growth in manufacturing output in October 2025 as well. While the GST rationalisation may support demand for regular use/small-ticket items after the festive season, the sustenance of the buoyancy in demand for big-ticket items remains to be seen, in ICRA’s view.
The credit card transactions data for October 2025 will only be available by
end-November 2025. Further, the data on GST collected in November for
October transactions will be available on December 1, 2025. These data points
would provide greater clarity around the buoyancy in consumption trends in
October 2025.
EXHIBIT: Consumer durables output surged by 9.1% MoM in Sep 2025, with the index
touching an all-time high in the month, well above the peaks typically seen in March
every year
Source: NSO; CEIC; ICRA Research