ICRA forecasts a 6-9% wholesale volume growth for the industry in FY2026 (flattish volumes in 7m FY2026), aided by improved replacement demand (after the GST rate cuts), expected recovery in urban demand and healthy rural incomes (driven by a normal monsoon).

• Wholesale volumes inch up – Domestic wholesale volumes grew marginally by 1.5% YoY in October 2025, reaching 2.1 million units. The modest growth reflects a high base effect, even as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) sustained healthy dispatches, supported by robust festive season.
• Retail volumes hit record high in October 2025 – Retail sales surged 51.8% YoY in October 2025. After muted demand for most of September due to GST 2.0 transition, October witnessed a sharp rebound as GST rate cuts, festive tailwinds from Dussehra and Diwali, and strong rural demand converged. Rural markets outperformed urban, driven by healthy farm incomes.