The domestic gold jewellery industry is projected to register a value growth of around 14-16% in FY2027 primarily driven by elevated gold prices and continued investor preference for gold in the form of bars, coins and ETFs. Notably, gold prices surged by around 60% in FY2026, extending the strong uptrend observed over the preceding two years.

ICRA forecasts around 15% value growth for the domestic gold jewellery industry in FY2027, primarily supported by sustained high gold prices and investment demand, even though gold jewellery volumes are expected to decline by around 20% year over year (YoY). Demand for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and investment in gold bars and coins, which accounted for around 41% of India’s volumetric gold consumption in FY2026, is expected to grow by 4-6% in FY2027, following a 22% rise in FY2026. This is expected to help cushion the decline in overall gold demand to 9-11% in FY2027.

Domestic gold prices rose by 33% in FY2025 and 60% in FY2026 and have remained high at above Rs. 15,000 per gram in the current fiscal. This continued price growth is driven by global economic developments, geopolitical tensions and increased investment demand for gold. Recent increase in import duty on gold to 15% (from 6%) has already raised the landed cost of gold, transmitting into higher domestic prices.