Operating profits of domestic steel companies improved to $109/tonnein Q4 FY2026 over $84/tonnereported in Q3 FY2026. However, while the price momentum has carried into April 2026, rising coking coal and iron ore costs are partly offsetting the gains, resulting in only a modest improvement in the profitability expected in Q1 FY2027.

Steel demand growth is expected to improve to 9-10% in FY2027 as the Government of India’s (GoI’s) capex drive to steel-intensive sectors such as roads, railways and infrastructure projects see sharp development (about 25% increase in budgetary allocations) compared to moderation in FY2025 and FY2026. In contrast, steel demand growth in FY2026 remained moderate at 7.6% amid slow capex execution

Domestic hot rolled coil (HRC) prices rebounded in Q4 FY2026, rising about 14% QoQ to Rs. 57,700/MT by end March, supported by higher coking coal and iron ore costs. At the beginning of FY2027 (April 2026), domestic HRC continued to trade at a discount of around $29-45/MT to landed imports, keeping imports uncompetitive and supporting domestic price realisations. Going forward, prices are likely to remain broadly range-bound around current levels in Q1, with seasonal moderation expected during the monsoon quarters.