ICRA’s outlook on the sector is Negative as the West Asia conflict has resulted in sharp depreciation of the Indian rupee against the dollar, compounding the pricing pressure amid elevated raw material prices and constrained raw material availability, particularly sulphur and ammonia. With the West Asia crisis persisting, the Government of India's decision on subsidy revisions for the rabi season will remain a key monitorable.

• FY2026 fertiliser retail sales rose 2.6% YoY to 67.3 MMT, led by 2.9% growth in urea and 4.1% in DAP. Imports increased 52% to 23.2 MMT as domestic production remained flat at 50.9 MMT. For FY2027, volumes are expected to stagnate or decline by 0–5% amid lower production and constrained availability. YoY Production already down by -3% in 3M FY2027
• Fertiliser availability remains adequate for the ongoing season, with urea, DAP, MOP and NPK inventories healthy versus last year. Government of India (GoI) tenders of 2.5 MMT in April and 1.7 MMT in June 2026-4.2 MMT in total - have supported availability, although India remains reliant on imports for incremental requirements.