Economic Outlook & Macro Trends

April 2026 merchandise trade deficit widened given sequential spike in crude and gold imports; FY2027 CAD to worsen to ~2.0% of GDP

Monthly Update 15 May 2026

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Despite the challenges posed by the conflict in West Asia, India’s merchandise exports rose to a 49-month high of $43.6 billion in April 2026, partly benefitting from petroleum shipments owing to higher crude oil prices. Likewise, imports also posted a robust double-digit year-on-year (YoY) growth in the month, aided by the non-oil segment. While India's merchandise trade deficit (MTD) increased mildly in YoY terms, there was a substantial widening in sequential terms to $28.4 billion in April 2026 from $20.7 billion in March 2026, 60% of which was on account of higher gold and net crude oil imports.

MoM growth in imports in April 2026 twice as high as that in exports: Despite the challenges posed by the conflict in West Asia, India’s merchandise exports rose by ~14% YoY and ~12% month-on-month (MoM) to a 49-month high $43.6 billion in April 2026. This partly benefitted from higher commodity prices, with the value of oil exports rising to a 24-month high of $9.6 billion. Likewise, merchandise import growth stood at 10% YoY and ~21% MoM amounting to $71.9 billion in April 2026, printing at the second highest-ever monthly level. Consequently, the MTD widened to $28.4 billion in April 2026 from $20.7 billion in March 2026, 60% of which stemmed from higher gold and net crude oil imports.

Trade flows to West Asia improved in April 2026, albeit led by high commodity prices: The exports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia rebounded to $3.0 billion in April 2026 from a record low of $2.6 billion in April 2025, similar to the trend displayed in imports (to $9.4 billion from $8.2 billion), despite the disruptions ongoing in the region. However, these trends are masked by the impact of the surge in energy prices. Exports to the US were up 1.1% YoY in the month, after contracting by 14.4% on an average during December-March FY2026, partly aided by a favourable base.

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