Kharif foodgrain output at all time high, while rabi sowing kicked off in a timely manner: As per the first advance estimates (AE) of kharif crop output for AY 2025-26, kharif foodgrain output rose by 2.3% YoY to a record-high of 173.3 MT, following the 8.8% surge seen in the previous year. While rabi sowing has increased by 6.2% YoY as on December 5, 2025, benefitting from strong reservoir storage levels, this is partly on the back of a low base related to back ended sowing in 2024. Compared to corresponding period of 2021-2023, rabi sowing was 2.5% lower till December 5, 2025.

Adverse base to optically dampen agri GVA expansion to 3.0% in Q3 FY2026: Notwithstanding the healthy uptick in kharif foodgrain output and timely onset of rabi sowing, the adverse base is likely to optically temper the agri-GVA growth to a 6-quarter low of 3.0% in Q3 FY2026 (+6.6% in Q3 FY2025) from 3.5% in Q2 FY2026 (+4.1% in Q2 FY2025). Notably, the YoY growth in nominal agri GVA growth has eased sharply in H1 FY2026, as farm-gate prices remained soft. While this is concerning, this trend is expected to reverse from Q4 FY2026 onwards, amid a hardening in food inflation.

EXHIBIT: GVA growth of agriculture, forestry and fishing sector

P: Projected; Source: National Statistical Office, ICRA Research