Economic Outlook & Macro Trends

IIP rose by higher-than-expected 4.1% YoY in March 2026; near-term prints may weaken amid fallout of West Asia conflict

Monthly Update 28 Apr 2026

IIP growth eased to 4.1% in March 2026: The YoY IIP growth slowed to 4.1% in March 2026 from the downward revised 5.1% in February 2026, while exceeding ICRA’s forecast (+1.5%). This was entirely driven by a deterioration in the output of the core sector (to -0.4% from +2.8%) in March 2026 compared to February, while the implicit expansion in the non-core segment (to +7.8% from +6.9%) improved between these months.

EXHIBIT: IIP growth eased to a 5-month low of 4.1% in March 2026 (+3.9% in March 2025) from the downward revised 5.1% in February 2026 (+2.7% in February 2025), while printing much higher than ICRA’s expectations (+1.5%)


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