The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) second stage long range forecast (LRF) pared the volume of Southwest (SW) Monsoon rainfall to 90% +/-4% of Long Period Average (LPA) from 92% +/- 5% indicated in the 1 st LRF, both of which fall under “below-normal” rainfall classification. Moreover, it expects weak El Nino conditions to develop in June 2026, which would strengthen through the monsoon season, to strong intensity levels by September 2026. These conditions, along with fertiliser availability challenge amid the West Asia conflict, may weigh on kharif sowing, reservoir replenishment and agricultural output in 2026-27, and also sour rural sentiments. ICRA pegs agri-GVA to grow by a tepid sub-1.5% in FY2027.

EXHIBIT: IMD’s rainfall forecasts over homogenous zones of the country during June-September 2026