The headline WPI inflation surged to a series high of 9.9% on a year-on-year (YoY) basis in June 2026 from 9.7% in May 2026. The uptick was not broad based, and was largely driven by the food segment, which contributed 43 bps to the rise in headline WPI inflation between these months. While remaining elevated at 7.5%, the core WPI (non-food manufactured products) inflation eased in June 2026, reflecting the sequential softening in commodity prices. Looking ahead, wholesale prices across most food items have seen some YoY hardening in early-July 2026 relative to June 2026, suggesting that the WPI-food inflation is likely to inch up in the ongoing month. While global commodity prices, including oil, have cooled in July 2026 so far from the levels seen in June 2026, the escalation in tensions in West Asia has resulted in some rebound in prices in the recent sessions, posing upside risks. ICRA expects the YoY WPI inflation to print at an elevated 9.0% in July 2026.

EXHIBIT: Headline WPI inflation spiked to a series-high of 9.9% in June 2026 (-0.4% in June 2025) from 9.7% in May 2026 (-0.2% in May 2025), amid a hardening in food inflation, even as core WPI eased between these months

Source: Office of the Economic Advisor, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, GoI; ICRA Research