Economic Outlook & Macro Trends

CPI inflation expectedly printed at 3.4% in March 2026; likely to cross 4.0% in April amid conflict-led uptick in prices of several items

Monthly Update 13 Apr 2026

As expected, the year-on-year (YoY) headline CPI inflation (base year: 2024) rose mildly to 3.4% in March 2026 from 3.2% in February 2026, driven by food and beverages (F&B), and electricity, gas, and other fuel groups, with the latter reflecting the impact of the West Asia crisis across LPG and alternate fuels. Moving forward, the YoY inflation in the F&B segment is expected to rise further and cross the 4%-mark in April 2026 from 3.7% in March 2026, led by vegetables, edible oils, and readymade food segments.

EXHIBIT: Contribution of sub-classes to the YoY F&B inflation (pp)

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