CPI inflation hardened to 4.8% in August 2026; risks from crude oil price surge may prepone rate hike to October from December 2026
Monthly Update
14 Sep 2026
The year-on-year (YoY) headline CPI inflation (base year: 2024) rose to 4.82% in August 2026 from 4.45% in July 2026, printing slightly higher than ICRA’s forecast (+4.6%). While the uptick was broad-based, driven by 10 of the 12 divisions, the food & beverages (F&B), housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels, and information & communications divisions accounted for a bulk of the ~37 bps uptick in the headline print between these months.
ICRA expects the F&B inflation prints to rise further close to the 7.0%-mark in September 2026, exerting upward pressure on the headline CPI, amid an uncertain impact of uneven monsoon distribution on crop output.
