Economic Outlook & Macro Trends

CPI inflation expectedly rose to 3.2% in February 2026; geopolitical uncertainty reinforces likelihood of pause in policy rates in April MPC review

Monthly Update 12 Mar 2026

As per the new CPI 2024 series, the YoY CPI inflation inched up to 3.2% in February 2026 from the revised 2.7% in January 2026, while remaining below the mid-point of the MPC’s target range of 2%-6%. 

Moreover, on a sequential basis, the headline CPI inflation was up by 0.1% in February 2026, slightly lower than 0.3% seen in January 2026, albeit in contrast to the 0.3% decline seen in February 2025.

EXHIBIT: YoY trends in headline and division-wise CPI indices in January 2026 (base: 2024)

Source: NSO; CEIC; ICRA Research

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