Economic Outlook & Macro Trends

WPI rose to higher -than -expected 0.8% in December 2025; to inch up further to 1.5% in January 2026 led by food and commodity prices

Monthly Update 14 Jan 2026
WPI inflation at higher-than-expected 0.8% in December 2025: Headline WPI rose by 0.8% YoY in December 2025, after posting deflation in the prior two months (-0.3%/-1.0% in Nov/Oct 2025), higher than ICRA’s forecast of 0.4%. 

 The fall in USD/INR pair and rising global commodity prices exerted pressure on the landed cost of imports in the month; this was particularly reflected in non-food manufactured products or “core-WPI” category, that has risen by 0.5% MoM and 2.0% YoY in December 2025, the steepest uptick in 19 and 34 months, respectively.

EXHIBIT: Headline WPI rose by 0.8% YoY in December 2025, after posting deflation in the prior two months (-0.3%/-1.0% in Nov/Oct 2025); however, core-WPI inflation rose to a 34-month high of 2.0% in December 2025


Source: Office of the Economic Advisor, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, GoI; ICRA Research

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