Demand growth for FY2027 estimated at 6.5%, supported by strong recovery in electricity demand due to weather related factors and continued economic activity. Thermal PLF projected to hover at 66-68% for FY2027 amid delayed onset of the monsoons. Coal stocks fall below normative levels amid rising power demand and thermal generation, leading to tighter demand-supply conditions.

• All-India electricity demand rebounded strongly in FY2027, increasing by 9.4% YoY in 4M FY2027, after marginal growth of 0.8% in FY2026. The strong growth was supported by the delayed onset of the monsoons, which prolonged above-normal temperatures across several regions of the country, leading to higher cooling related demand, along with continued growth in industrial and commercial activity. In FY2027, demand growth is likely to remain healthy at around 6.5%, supported by weather-related factors, a lower base and steady economic momentum. This outlook is underpinned by structurally strong demand fundamentals, as reflected in the robust demand growth during FY2022-FY2025, driven by favourable weather conditions, economic activity and increasing electrification.
• The all-India average thermal plant load factor (PLF) stood at 65.2% in FY2026, reflecting subdued demand growth and rising generation from non-thermal sources. However, strong recovery in electricity demand in FY2027 has supported thermal generation and plant utilisation levels. Despite the growing share of renewable generation, the thermal PLF is expected to remain healthy at around 66-68% in FY2027, aided by sustained demand growth and the ongoing need for thermal power to meet baseload requirements.

Source: ICRA Research, Central Electricity Authority (CEA)