For September 2025, domestic air passenger traffic was estimated1 at 128.5 lakh, 1.4% lower than 130.3 lakh in September 2024 and 0.8% lower than 129.5 lakh in August 2025. The airlines’ capacity deployment in September 2025 was 3.3% lower than September 2024 and 0.7% higher than August 2025. For H1 FY2026 (April-September 2025), domestic air passenger traffic was 803.7 lakh, reflecting a YoY growth of 1.3%. For August 2025, international air passenger traffic for Indian carriers was 29.9 lakh, a YoY growth of 7.8% and 1.4% on a sequential basis on account of a recovery in air travel demand. For 5M FY2026 (April-August 2025), international air passenger traffic for Indian carriers stood at 147.3 lakh, a YoY growth of 9.7%.
- Stable outlook on the Indian aviation industry – ICRA’s outlook on the Indian aviation industry is Stable, driven by expectations of modest growth in domestic air passenger traffic in FY2026. While the overall passenger traffic has so far held steady, ongoing geopolitical and operational headwinds warrant close monitoring for potential downside risks.
- ATF prices in October 2025 were higher by around 3.3% on a sequential basis – The yield movement will remain monitorable due to its linkage with aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices and the INR to USD exchange rate, both of which have a significant bearing on airlines’ cost structures.
EXHIBIT : Trend in capacity deployment by domestic airlines
Source: MoCA, DGCA, ICRA Research
